Regroup: Market will take 3 years to recover

Malaysia's property market will take three years to recover from its current slump, the slowest revival in more than two decades, reflecting the reach of the worldwide financial crisis, Regroup Associates Sdn Bhd said.

"In the past four weeks, I've been staring at an abyss," said Allan Soo, managing director and founder of Regroup, a Kuala Lumpur-based property consultant and home seller. "What's changed is the global recession."

A worldwide slowdown has sparked real-estate slumps from the UK to Singapore, causing Malaysian developers such as Magna Prima Bhd to scale back projects. Values of luxury homes in Kuala Lumpur, where prices surged to a record last year, may fall as an oversupply looms, according to Soo, who declined to give a specific forecast.

Malaysia's property market took about a year to recover from the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis, Soo said. The rebound from the latest slump may start in 2010 and take as long as the recovery from the 1985 recession, Soo said.

Compared with 2007, interest from prospective buyers has dried up, Soo said in an interview in Kuala Lumpur last Thursday.
"Inquiries would come in right after we put up a sign board on properties," Soo said. "Now, there's none."

Home prices will come under further pressure as the number of high-end apartments in Kuala Lumpur doubles to more then 30,000 in the next three years, according to Regroup.

Economic growth in Malaysia in 2009 is expected to slow to 3.5 per cent from about five per cent this year, according to the government's estimates. Still, losses for homeowners may be capped because most bought properties in 2006 before the peak for less than RM1,000 a square foot, Soo said. The entry of foreigners last year pushed prices to more than RM2,000, he added.

Signs of fewer home purchases have already emerged. Bank loans approved for Malaysian home purchases in October fell to its lowest since February, according to Bank Negara Malaysia.

SP Setia Bhd, Malaysia's largest developer, expects a 22 per cent decline in property sales to RM1.1 billion in fiscal 2009, Citigroup Inc said last Thursday. SP Setia's officials couldn't be reached in their office last Friday for a comment. The Kuala Lumpur Property Index has slumped 51 per cent this year, outpacing the main index's 40 per cent slide.

Magna Prima said last month it cut the projected revenue from its biggest property development in northern Kuala Lumpur by almost half.

By Bloomberg